The Climate Reporter

Title: Ghost of Obama's Past

Author: McLean Date: January 27, 2010

It is Christmas Eve 2008. In a hotel suite in Chicago, President-elect Obama is putting the finishing touches on the plans for his new Administration. He returns from the outer office into his inner sanctum, and is surprised to find a rather odd-looking fellow waiting for him. The visitor has long hair down over an old-fashioned collar, bushy sideburns such as went out of style when Barack was a boy, and a general air of being from another time.

“Good morning; I wasn’t expecting anyone for another hour, but do sit down and make yourself comfortable.”

“Thank-you sir, um, Senator. I’m here to talk about the Obama Presidential Library.”

“Bit soon, isn’t it, I’m not yet inaugurated as President. Anyway, I assume you’re an architect, right?”

“No, Senator, I’m more of a concept person. We thought you should start thinking about your legacy from the very beginning of your presidency, sir.”

“Concept eh? Sounds like the vision thing – I thought we presidents weren’t so good at that”

“Perhaps we could start with imagining the experience of a visitor to your presidential library in say 2050. What is going to be the key part of that experience, or to put it differently, what is to be the theme of the Obama Library.”

“Well that’s gotta be that I was the first black president, I mean that will trump all, no matter what my actual accomplishments might turn out to be.”

“We think not, sir. You see by then America will have changed even more, so we’ll be into double-bangers, such as first female Hispanic president and so on. No, sir, first African-American won’t cut it. What’s going to be the defining issue for Americans in 2050? – thinking about that will help focus the discussion.”

“Well, I guess it will be the same old, same old won’t it? Like secure employment, safe neighborhoods, proper education for the kids, affordable health care, the usual suspects.”

“Senator, the thing on everyone’s mind in 2050 will be the inexorable march of global warming, and all the complications it will be causing, like food shortages in the developing world, and a decades-long drought in the US south-west that is starting to threaten the mid-west. And of course the unsettling question of where it will all end.”

“Global warming? Climate change, you mean. But by then cap and trade and all that will be in force, won’t it, and CO2 emissions will be declining.”

“Senator, that’s going to be too little too late. What we’re suggesting is that the visitors to your library in 2050 won’t be concerned about global warming at all, because they’re on their way to pay respects to the man who stopped it.”

“Stop global warming? No single country, let alone individual can do that. It’ll have to be an international effort.”

“And there’s some other problems you can fix at the same time. Like energy security for America, putting the awkward squad - Chavez of Venuezela, Putin of Russia, and whoever is really running Iran – in place, and then there’s kick-starting the economy.”

“I’m going to be president, not superman. Where’s all this heading?”

“The idea is to have a carbon tax at a rate of ten dollars per barrel of crude oil, increasing at two cents a day until CO2 levels start to drop. Plus imposing an equivalent tax on natural gas and coal. And delayed for five years for domestic production. You’ll probably want to include Mexico, Trinidad and Canada as part of domestic production, keeping things quiet in the neighborhood. The idea is to give a clear signal to the renewable energy industry that the price of fossil fuel is going to rise no matter what so they can safely invest in innovation and new production.”

“Okay, I can see how that works for energy security, and presumably you expect an investment boom in renewable energy to get the domestic economy up off the floor. But it’s still going to mean expensive energy for the US business sector, putting us at a disadvantage to foreign firms.”

“The other component of your Energy Security Program, or ESP, is to announce that goods and services from any country that has a higher per capita carbon footprint than America will be subject to a 10% import duty, increasing at 1% per year. This will include outsourcing, and will be announced as a measure to prevent us from importing another country’s pollution, even though it will actually have the effect of bringing jobs home.”

“Very cute. But our carbon footprint is so much higher than anyone else’s - it’ll be years before that makes any difference.”

“Canada and Norway are right up there with us, and some of the Gulf states are even higher, so they might need a bit of time to adjust. But if we look at Japan and Germany, they’re about half our footprint, with declining or nearly so populations, so at first glance we’d have to agree with you. But US industry and society can adapt much faster than other countries, and we have an increasing population, so they have only about ten years notice to start cutting fossil fuel usage. China, at about a quarter of our level of carbon per capita is rapidly increasing its coal consumption, so they will have to start changing fairly soon as well. We’re giving everyone fair warning.”

“And your awkward squad, which one way or another could include a lot of oil producing countries – how are they going to be tamed?”

“The effect of your ESP will be to cut demand for oil as users move quickly to increase efficiency and find alternatives, and not just here in the US; other countries will have to follow suit. So the paradoxical effect of increasing prices by a tax will be to send oil prices down the toilet for producers. And for the games that the awkward like to play, you need money, and lots of it. Low oil prices means no money for them, no more disruptive behavior”

“What about reaction from other countries, like all this new internationalism that’s supposed to be in vogue. This will be seen as American unilateralism all over again.”

“That’s a good point, Senator. The Europeans will have their noses right out of joint. They’re the ones who are supposed to occupy the moral high ground on stopping global warming – and everything else. But they’ll tag along, as they won’t have to do anything straight away, so they’ll have lots of time for high-level meetings, conferences and travel to interesting places while they get a unified response together.

“The Japanese will panic, as they will be forced into making decisions. The Canadian government will be delighted, as then they can force through change and blame it on us; and that will be pretty much how it plays out everywhere – outrage in public, secretly pleased that unpopular taxes and so on can be blamed on the Americans.”

There was a long pause while President-elect Obama considered the proposition. Then came the obvious questions.

“What if this carbon tax doesn’t lower well-head prices for the producers; the tax on top of $150 a barrel oil would cause another Depression. And how much will it bring in, anyway?”

“We think about $50 billion a year – peanuts really. And yes, you would have to have an out so that if well-head prices exceed the reference price, which is $100 a barrel plus the tax, then you could reduce or remove the tax until the ratio reverses.

“And, sir, we think there are some other initiatives that might help sell the tax. For a start you should instruct the Army Corp of Engineers to begin feasibility studies for sea walls to protect the major cities and harbors of the US; plans for 30 foot high levees across Long Island Sound and San Francisco harbor will help focus minds no end. And call on the nuclear industry to develop plans for standardized fourth generation reactors that can be fast-tracked into production. They won’t actually succeed, but it will keep industry quiet. And announce that NASA is to cease work on manned flight until it has developed a sustainable energy strategy that could support a team of astronauts on Mars for six months, including land transport. The technology they come up with – advanced solar energy units and energy storage – will have direct use here on a post-fossil fuel Earth.”

“You know I’ve already had General Motors in here whining about low gas prices threatening their electric car strategy, this GM Volt thing they seem to think is going to stave off bankruptcy. I should be able to get them on board – what’s good for General Motors and all that. And it might help drive a wedge between that unholy alliance of the oil and automobile industries. This is starting to look interesting. I still think the Europeans will be a problem.”

“Well, sir you could invite yourself a meeting of the Mediterranean group that Sarkozy has set up, and offer to help with planning the barrage they’re going to need across the mouth of the Mediterranean to protect all the low lying land, especially the Nile Delta. That should keep them quiet for a while.”

“And if I don’t go along with this fancy tax plan of yours, what happens then. Armageddon I suppose.”

“Every president since Carter in 1976 has known about this problem, but they were unable or unwilling to do anything about it. Anyone of them could have been a contender to save the planet, but they turned out to be losers, all five of them. The only one we’ve got with us so far is Reagan, and he claims to have known nothing about greenhouse gases, or about anything much for that matter. As for you, sir, if you duck the challenge then you will be like them, Mr Obama, just another old guy who wasn’t up to it, just another loser.”

The President-elect wandered over to the window and looked out over the brightly lit streets of the Christmas shopping season, with the busy crowds making their last minute purchases. As he watched, the scene seemed to change, and became brighter and sunnier. The window pane itself became hot to the touch. And now the crowds had thinned out, people moving slowly and lethargically, and as he watched some seemed to faint in the street, to be left lying there. The temperature signal on the building opposite was reading 122 degrees. Then his view changed again; it was winter, with great piles of snow heaped in the streets. There were no lights visible, the buildings around seemed to be derelict, and there were only a handful of people in the street, huddled around a fire.

Puzzled, he turned to enquire of his visitor, only to find the room was empty.

“That’s odd. I didn’t hear the door.”

Section Climate Type Blog

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